Early Signs of Diminishing Jihadist Capability

Even mosques do not provide safe haven. In Mosul the yard of this one was covered in blood after the imam and his sons were killed by a bomb. BBC Photo

More than a dozen bombings, at least four of them coordinated suicide attacks, rocked Baghdad on Sept. 14, killing at least 152 people and wounding more than 500. Although it is unclear whether all the attacks are linked, the suicide bombings alone -- which claimed 144 of those lives -- constitute the most extensive jihadist operation in the capital since April 29, when nine bombs exploded as the new Iraqi National Assembly was sworn in. The latest bombings occurred as U.S.-led forces stage major offensives against the jihadists in the country's north and west, and while efforts to incorporate Iraq 's Sunni population into the political process move forward.

The Sept. 14 events demonstrate that the jihadists remain capable of carrying out deadly, concentrated strikes. The frequency of such major attacks, however, is diminishing, which suggests the insurgents could be running low on their most valuable asset -- willing suicide bombers.

The first bombing occurred early in the morning in Oruba Square in northern Baghdad 's Kazimiyah district, a predominantly Shiite area where day laborers gather to wait for work. The suicide bomber drove into the square in a minibus and announced that he was looking to hire workers. After a crowd of men gathered around his vehicle, he detonated his bomb, which Iraqi Interior Ministry personnel estimate contained at least 500 pounds of explosives. The blast killed at least 114 people and wounded more than 200.

In another part of northern Baghdad , a suicide car bomber detonated at a gas station, killing 11 people who had lined up to refill gas cans. Another suicide car bomber killed 14 Iraqi police officers in an attack against a U.S. military convoy near central Baghdad 's Rashid Hotel, which houses diplomats and foreign contractors. In northern Baghdad 's Shula neighborhood, five people died and 14 were wounded in a suicide car bombing at the offices of radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who was not present at the time.

Other bombings occurred in Baghdad on Sept. 14, but it is unclear whether they part of the coordinated jihadist attack. A car bomber struck an Iraqi National Guard patrol in the Shula neighborhood, killing at least two people, and another car bomber attacked a U.S. military convoy in eastern Baghdad, according to Iraqi police, although the U.S. military has not confirmed the latter attack. In addition, Iraqi authorities reported that at least two car bombs struck U.S. military convoys in Baghdad 's western Amiriyah district.

In a statement released to Arab satellite channel Al Jazeera, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's jihadist group al Qaeda in Iraq claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying they were the work of the Abu al-Bara bin Malik Brigade that specializes in suicide attacks, and that they were the beginning of a new campaign of bombings.

According to al Qaeda's statement, the campaign is retaliation for the recent storming of the jihadist stronghold of Tall Afar in northern Iraq by U.S. and Iraqi troops. "The conquest of revenge for the Sunni people of Tall Afar has started," the statement said, referring to jihadist efforts to incite a sectarian war between Iraq 's Sunni and Shiite communities.

Also on Sept. 14, insurgents wearing Iraqi military uniforms rounded up and executed 17 people in the capital's suburb of Taji. The attack appeared to be the work of Sunni nationalist insurgents who are waging a campaign of revenge killings and intimidation against Iraqis who cooperate with the predominantly Shiite government. Among those killed were a police officer and truck drivers and construction workers who worked for companies that do business with the U.S. military.

Baghdad has seen relatively little jihadist activity in recent months, the result of large security operations in the capital and an ongoing offensive campaign being waged by U.S. and Iraqi troops against their supply lines and safe-havens in western and northern Iraq . Most of the attacks in Baghdad in the last 90 days have been car bombings, roadside bomb attacks or drive-by shootings.

The Sept. 14 attacks were the first coordinated suicide car bombings since Aug. 17, when three bombers -- two of them suicide bombers -- attacked the capital's central al-Nahda bus station during morning rush hour and the Al Kindi hospital, where the wounded from the first attack were being taken. At least 54 people, including civilians, police and medics were killed, and at least 89 were wounded in the attack.

A total of 39 major suicide bombings -- both pedestrian and car bombers -- were reported throughout Iraq in July. In August only 22 major suicide bombings occurred, and just two major suicide bombings had occurred in September before Sept. 14. The jihadists also have been more selective in their use of suicide bombers, choosing their targets carefully and planning their attacks to maximize casualties, as the Sept. 14 attacks confirm. The less frequent suicide attacks, however, could indicate a dwindling supply of willing suicide bombers in the jihadist arsenal.

As the political process in Iraq progresses and more Sunnis are incorporated, the jihadists, who depend on support from the Iraqi Sunni community, find their support base eroding. As Sunni leaders make deals with the Shiite-dominated government, the Iraqi Sunni community has less need for the foreign jihadists among them. As their support from the local community decreases, the jihadists have less freedom of movement and more difficulty in planning, staging and carrying out their attacks. Thus, in contrast to past suicide bombing campaigns, which emphasized quantity over quality and appeared almost arbitrary in nature, we are seeing fewer attacks.

As it becomes more difficult for the jihadists to operate, they will use their valuable resources -- including suicide bombers -- more sparingly and more carefully.

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