Syria's surprise withdrawal spurs Iran to desperate action in Lebanon

Iran has ordered Hizbullah Secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah to heat up the Israeli-Lebanese border in an effort to torpedo Lebanese parliamentary elections that begin on May 29. Like a good soldier, Nasrallah has obeyed.
Last week, Hizbullah launched a series of rocket attacks on Israel representing the heaviest clash with Israel's military so far this year. Nasrallah has also ordered Hizbullah to infiltrate Israel and abduct soldiers. He hopes for a massive Israeli retaliation that would throw Lebanon and the rest of the region into turmoil and either postpone elections indefinitely or force the country to rally around Hizbullah.

Westerners have long believed that Hizbullah represents a genuine expression of Lebanese society. The problem is Hizbullah has never believed this; it was created by Iran, financed by Iran and directed by the mullahs in Teheran — to serve Iran.

When Iran orders, Hizbullah obeys. The prospect of an anti-Syrian opposition government in Beirut could mean the end of Iran's military presence and influence in Lebanon. For Iran, such a move would be a major blow to regime stability.

"We see several additional incidents," said Maj. Gen. Benny Gantz, Israel's chief of the Northern Command. "It could be that different sources in Lebanon are trying to indicate the extent of their strength or importance. This also could be the expansion of the domestic Lebanese agenda at our expense," he said.

Israeli military sources were expecting a Hizbullah attack following the success by the Lebanese opposition and the international community to expel Syria's military from Lebanon. At first, Syria tried to destabilize the Christian community with a series of car bombings around Beirut. That didn't work. Now, with Syrian troops out, the Lebanese government has been targeting Palestinian terrorist groups and Hizbullah for disarmament.

This time, it was Iran's turn for alarm. Teheran feared that the Lebanese would flock to vote for pro-democracy forces and leave Hizbullah out in the cold and vulnerable to attack by a U.S.-equipped and trained Lebanese military. Iran, already dismayed by the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, realized that a toothless Hizbullah would mark the end of Iranian influence.

As a result, Iran pressed Syrian President Bashar Assad to begin a joint Hizbullah-Palestinian effort to destabilize Lebanon. Hizbullah would supply weapons to Palestinian groups under Syrian control for attacks on Israel.
"You have to connect this with the Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon and the demand by UN Security Council resolution 1559 that calls for the disarming of the militias," said Deputy Defense Minister Zeev Boim.

"The Syrians might have left but they will do all they can to maintain influence in Lebanon — and Hizbullah is the key player in this effort," he said. "There is a Syrian effort to encourage Palestinian terrorist groups to come to Lebanon under Hizbullah sponsorship and coordination and bring weapons, people and funds to be the arm that could be operated by Syria even if Syria would not be there."

Western intelligence sources said Iran doesn't expect much from its coordination with Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime. Teheran has been concerned that the rapid Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon marked a strategic decision by Assad to cooperate with the United States and save his regime, the sources said.

As a result, the Iranian leadership in Teheran is preparing to go at it alone. In late March, Iranian leaders decided to initiate a strategy to prevent Syria from abandoning Teheran and support the West. The fear was that Syria would move toward the West and leave Iran to face international pressure alone — particularly regarding its nuclear program.

The sources said Iran was stunned by Syria's decision to withdraw its military from Lebanon. Despite their strategic cooperation accord, Damascus did not ask Teheran's permission or even formally consult before the withdrawal decision. This, despite two visits by Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi to Damascus over the past month.

"Iran thought it would eventually control the Assad regime, particularly after the fall of Iraq," an intelligence source said.

"Suddenly, Assad has been seeking to reconcile with the West, particularly the United States, even at the price of Lebanon. This has angered Iranian leaders and they have written off Assad."

That's where Nasrallah comes in. Israeli military sources said Hizbullah has been ordered to begin attacks against Israel's northern border while intimidating and killing opposition Lebanese leaders, particularly Druze chief Walid Jumblatt. The effort would be coordinated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and elements within Syrian intelligence.

"The Iranians feel they are racing against the clock," an Israeli military source said. "They could get desperate."

Source: Geostrategy