Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia: A Reversal on Oil Infrastructure?

Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia: A Reversal on Oil Infrastructure?
Dec 20, 2004 1810 GMT

Al Qaeda's branch in Saudi Arabia called on followers Dec. 18 to target the
oil supplies that serve "the enemies of this nation." As al Qaeda has never
directly attacked the country's oil infrastructure, this latest call to
action appears to reverse that hands-off policy. That, in turn, could
suggest that al Qaeda's newest leaders in the kingdom have little intention
of maintaining the status quo.

"We call on all the mujahideen in the Arabian Peninsula to unify their ranks
... and target the oil supplies that do not serve the Islamic nation but the
enemies of this nation," said the statement, posted on the Internet. Two
days earlier, Osama bin Laden issued a Web-posted audiotape praising
<http://web2.stratfor.com/news/2004TER/Story.neo?storyId=241071> the
militants who attacked the U.S. Consulate in Jeddah.

It is quite possible that the Dec. 18 statement is meant to imply that al
Qaeda followers should launch attacks against the oil infrastructure of
Middle Eastern countries that host U.S. military personnel, such as Kuwait,
Bahrain, Qatar and Yemen. Whether al Qaeda's followers in the kingdom would
recognize that subtlety, however, is another question entirely.

The ultimate goal of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia is to overthrow the Saudi
government and replace it with an Islamist regime. Inherent in that goal is
the assumption that the new regime will need the revenue generated from the
oil industry -- Saudi Arabia's lifeblood -- to run the country and maintain
its rule. Attacking the oil infrastructure, then, would seem
counterproductive. In fact, the closest al Qaeda has come to the oil
industry were the attacks in May against the offices of petrochemical
companies in Yanbu and against a compound housing Westerners in Khobar.

However, although directly attacking the kingdom's oil infrastructure would
mark a radical change for the Saudi branch, the group -- under new leader
Saud bin <http://web2.stratfor.com/news/2004TER/Story.neo?storyId=238723>
Hammoud al-Otaibi -- proved itself quite brazen in the Dec. 6 assault
against the U.S. compound in Jeddah
<http://web2.stratfor.com/news/2004TER/Story.neo?storyId=240450> .

The choice of target, a well-protected U.S. facility, demonstrated that al
Qaeda was not content to stage random attacks against Westerners -- as it
has in the past -- and that it was not intimidated by the levels of security
at the compound. Less than two weeks after the Jeddah attack, the group
issued this latest call to action.

That the group issued a statement so shortly after the Dec. 6 attack could
suggest it is seriously gearing up again under al-Otaibi's leadership.
Although releasing a statement on the Internet is not the riskiest move --
given the difficulties in tracking such statements to their source -- the
fact that the statement was issued while Saudi security forces likely are in
hot pursuit of the kingdom's militants seems to suggest they are confident
the group has not been penetrated by Saudi intelligence.

Moreover, the Internet-posted statement also could indicate the group has
found new backers. Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia has in the past enjoyed the
tacit support of the Saudi elite, although that interconnectedness might
have led Saudi counterterrorism authorities up the chain to former
short-lived leaders. If al Qaeda has decided to target oil infrastructure,
it could mean that the group's most recent benefactors no longer belong to
the Saudi elite -- who live and die by oil revenues.

History has shown that al Qaeda's statements in the kingdom have spurred
action, unlike the rather nebulous statements issued by transnational
Islamist militant groups. The last
<http://web2.stratfor.com/news/2004TER/Story.neo?storyId=232407> call to
action from al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia preceded a summer-long campaign of
violence directed against Westerners.