Al Qaeda's Hidden Agenda

Summary

A new audiotape surfaced Oct. 1 from deputy al Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri. Though it contains a repeat of his standard call to action,
some unusual aspects suggest al Qaeda is concerned that its ability to lead
the larger jihadist movement could be waning.

Analysis

Al Jazeera television aired portions of an audiotape from deputy al Qaeda
leader Ayman al Zawahiri on Oct. 1. The excerpts made available by the
Qatar-based Arabic satellite channel suggest the tape was made before
al-Zawahiri's videotaped message, which surfaced Sept. 9. Though it is a
call to arms -- like most of al Qaeda's communiques -- this particular tape
focuses on the Palestinian issue.

The substance of al-Zawahiri's message and the style of his language suggest
al Qaeda might be losing influence over the overall jihadist movement.

In the tape, al-Zawahiri tells his Muslim audience that it cannot wait for
the United States and its allies to invade additional Muslim states in order
to organize resistance against the West. He calls upon the youth to take a
lesson from the Palestinian, Chechen and Iraqi situations and to begin
establishing new resistance leaderships immediately.

He focuses on the Palestinian issue and says fighting Israelis alone will
not yield the desired results. The states that support Israel -- the United
States and countries in Europe and Asia -- also must be confronted, he
urges.

This counters a variety of elements -- secular Muslim states such as Syria
and Lebanon, certain radical and even moderate Islamist groups and scholars

-- that support the causes in Israel and Iraq, but condemn violence
perpetrated by al Qaeda.

Promoting itself as the overall vanguard of the jihadist movement, al Qaeda
has long tried to appropriate the Palestinian cause and align itself with
Palestinian militant Islamist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic
Jihad. This time, however, al-Zawahiri's comments on the issue contain two
unusual elements. First, he calls on Muslim youth everywhere to join the
fighting in the Palestinian-Israeli arena in order to elevate the struggle
from a low-intensity campaign into a larger war. More importantly,
al-Zawahiri argues that the battle cannot be restricted to Israel alone, and
insists that it be taken to "Crusader" and "Zionist" interests worldwide.

It seems clear that al-Zawahiri, whose network monitors the discourse
regarding jihadism in the Arab and Muslim world, is responding to growing
discontent with the network and its jihadist actions, and to views that the
only legitimate battlegrounds are in Israel and Iraq. Al Qaeda seemingly
feels the need to counter this viewpoint out of fear that its take on jihad
is losing appeal. This tape can thus be seen as an attempt to reshape the
discourse and regain the lead regarding the notion of jihad.

The timing of this latest tape also is noteworthy. It likely was recorded
sometime between the assassinations of Hamas leaders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and
Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi in April and the wave of arrests of key al Qaeda
members in Pakistan later in the summer.

This tape might have surfaced after the Sept. 9 video because the network
could not get it to Al Jazeera or Al Arabiya earlier. Attempts to deliver it
might have been thwarted by the arrests, which could have led to
network-wide radio silence.

However, in light of Sept. 29 Israeli radio reports that Pakistani troops
had captured al-Zawahiri, it also is likely this tape was finally released
to respond to such claims -- and to lay the groundwork for the network's
future.

"Young Muslims, here is our message ... if we are killed or taken prisoner,
continue the path (of resistance) after us. Don't betray God and his
Prophet," al-Zawahiri says, obviously referring to himself and al Qaeda
leader Osama bin Laden. This is useful in that it outlines a course of
action should the al Qaeda leadership be killed or captured -- a threat that
might be increasing given the surge in countermilitancy operations by
Pakistani and U.S. forces.

At what point these two elusive militants will be captured is unknown, but
one thing is certain: they know their network is under extreme pressure
ideologically -- and that they are under pressure physically. Assigning
regional chapters to stage attacks while the leaders continue with verbal
assaults from a distance is an attempt to prove al Qaeda remains in the
vanguard of the overall jihadist movement.