Attacks Against Russia: Moscow's Brave Face

Summary

More-detailed analysis by Russian authorities has led to the conclusion that
foul play was the cause of one of the two Aug. 24 air crashes that killed
106 people. Logic dictates that the Kremlin would want to respond to the
attack in the strongest way possible, but Moscow has very few options for
striking back -- none of them good.

Russian investigators disclosed Aug. 27 that they found traces of the
explosive hexogen on board one of the two planes that crashed Aug. 24.

Hexogen is the explosive used in the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings just
before the beginning of the current Chechen war. Hexogen is more commonly
referred to in the United States as RDX or cyclonite and is a key component
in the explosives Semtex and C4.

An Internet-posted announcement by a group identifying itself as the
Islambouli Brigades said the attacks were carried out by five mujahideen on
each plane as revenge for Russia's ongoing war in Chechnya. Sources in
Russian law enforcement say no one has stepped forward to inquire about two
passengers on the planes -- one on each plane -- who have Chechen last
names, signifying that the "Islambouli Brigades" was indeed correct about at
least two of its "mujahideen." Chechen militants have used female suicide
bombers extensively in the past, most notably in the February 2004 Moscow
subway bombings.

Now that the Russians have confirmed they were the victims of a terrorist
attack and now that a group -- however questionable the legitimacy of its
assertions -- has claimed responsibility, the Russian people will expect
their government to take action to contain and combat the threat. Logic
dictates that Russia will want to make an all-out effort to prevent another
attack from happening -- similar to U.S. action immediately after the Sept.

11 attacks.

In reality, Moscow's actions will amount to a big zero.

Unlike the United States, which largely had ignored the terrorist threat
before September 2001, Russia already is doing everything imaginable to
battle it.

There already are some 80,000 military and Interior Ministry troops in the
separatist province of Chechnya, and efforts to put pro-Moscow Chechens in
charge of the security there has had -- at best -- limited success. Militant
activity occasionally leaks out of Chechnya into troubled Dagestan and
until-recently placid Ingushetia.

Russia could attempt to tighten its security across the board, but again,
aside from switching responsibility for airport security from the
Transportation Ministry to the Interior Ministry -- which President Vladimir
Putin did the day after the twin crashes -- there is not much more to be
done. One of the few tacks Russia could take would be to crack down against
organized crime more directly, but since corruption within Russian law
enforcement is rife -- precisely because of the organized crime problem --
tightening already strangling internal security regulations and practices
would possibly only make Russia look even more like a police state than the
multi-party democracy it claims to be.

There is also a presidential angle. Russia is now a one-man show politically
and Putin does not want to appear weak either home or abroad. This has led
to a delay in declaring terrorism the most likely cause of the disaster, and
will similarly mute Russia's response. Just as it was after the Moscow
theater crisis that resulted in the deaths of 102 civilians and the December

2003 suicide bombing in Grozny that killed 80, Russia's response probably
will be limited. Putin will put on a brave face -- and the country will
continue the grinding war in Chechnya.

(c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.