SCENARIO PLANNING
Protecting important sites remains difficult, even three years after
the
Sept. 11 attacks. Consider the reaction when the Kentucky governor's
plane
flew into restricted airspace near the Capitol during preparations for
President Ronald Reagan's funeral: Hundreds of congressmen were told
to run
for their lives from the building. Though pundits later dismissed the
incident as an innocuous event, we are not convinced that officials
would
have been able to stop the plane if it had been manned by suicide attackers.
On the ground, there also are difficulties. Police and federal agents
in the
capital operate under peacetime, Constitution-sensitive rules of engagement.
Given the limitations placed on racial profiling, authorities cannot
stop
and search a Middle Eastern male who is carrying a backpack merely on
a
hunch. In light of these political realities and some of al Qaeda's
known
past plots, it is easy to envision attacks against the persons or motorcades
of high-level government officials -- either American leaders or visiting
foreign dignitaries. The recent strikes against expatriate compounds
in
Saudi Arabia -- involving multiple assault vehicles, overwhelming firepower
and vehicle bombs -- give some indication of militants' capabilities
in this
area.
That said, perhaps the most sensitive strike zone within the city --
and one
involving the greatest number of potential casualties -- is the Metro
subway
system. U.S. counterterrorism sources do not disagree with this view,
and in
many ways such a strike is a worst-case scenario.
A Madrid-style train attack is one of the most probable soft-target
scenarios for the D.C. area. Al Qaeda could carry out an operation involving
the subway system or an Amtrak train at Union Station with relative
ease. In
fact, given the daily traffic levels through the subway and the difficulties
of enforcing strict physical security, it is virtually impossible --
logistically or economically -- to defend against certain types of attack.
Releasing a sarin gas dispersant or an improvised explosive device
disguised
within a satchel or backpack -- strategically placed in subway or passenger
rail cars -- would create a horror scene, especially if the attack occurred
underground during rush hour. The fumes and fire would kill scores of
people
-- as could the subway third rail system, the dangers of which probably
would be forgotten amid the mayhem.
Protective Security Plans
Though federal and local officials cannot completely safeguard the
public,
there are steps Washington residents can take to protect themselves
and
their families in the event of an attack.
Observation and Readiness: This point cannot be emphasized enough.
Ensure
you are aware of your surroundings, have an escape plan in mind and
take
basic precautions. For example, consider buying a smoke hood: They are
inexpensive, can be carried in a briefcase and can be quickly deployed.
Some
models also can be carried aboard an aircraft. The hoods can be used
in the
event of a fire or attack -- whether in a subway, hotel or office building.
Also, carry a portable flashlight, small enough to fit into a pocket
or
briefcase. If a strike occurs, lights and power will go down, creating
panic.
Communications planning: One of al Qaeda's modus operandi is multiple
attacks in various cities. If an attack takes place, the federal government
will take cell phone towers offline to cut communications between militant
cells that might be planning attacks in other cities. As a result, you
might
not be able to communicate with your friends, colleagues or family.
Think ahead. Coordinate with your family to plan an escape route and
a
meeting place away from the Beltway. Designate a relative to be a
communications hub, and call that relative to check in when you can
establish a phone line.
Physical needs: Prepare a small "fly-way" kit containing
clothes, water,
nutritional bars, medicine and toiletry items for your family. Keep
it in
the car, and plan to depart the city immediately in the event of an
attack.
Do not wait to communicate with others; you will not be able to.
Additionally, keep a full tank of gas at all times, and decide in advance
what to do about family pets -- whether to keep them at home or take
them
with you.
Practice: Those who live and work in Washington should make contingency
plans and run through a tabletop exercise. Make it a family event, and
practice.
This is vital: In the event of a crisis, local, state and federal
authorities will be too busy dealing with events to assist you. Create
a
plan and execute.
(c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.
