Stratfor's Morning Intelligence Brief

The bottom line of the interview is that Hamas recognizes that the balance of power in the Middle East now has shifted and that the United States now is part of the Middle East. The United States is reorganizing the Middle East on its own behalf and on behalf of Israel. Nevertheless, given American power, Hamas has no choice but to give the United States an opportunity to shape Israeli-Palestinian relations in such a way that it gives the Palestinians what they want -- a viable state.

Obviously, there are all sorts of hidden land mines in this statement. Hamas has not stated that it would permanently abandon armed struggle against Israel and definitively recognize Israel in return for a state. That is implied, but the gap between commitment and implication is not trivial. What is important here is the obvious belief that the situation in the region has changed fundamentally, that the Americans cannot be ignored and that the only hope for the Palestinians is U.S. pressure on Israel. Hamas doesn't like the United States one bit. Clearly, it does not feel that it can simply resist the United States without at least giving Washington the opportunity -- and the breathing room -- to act. That is a pretty substantial change, even if it ultimately doesn't lead anywhere.

It is a change in attitude that needs to be viewed in the context of a poll released by the Pew Research Center. The poll, taken in 20 countries, found that the negative view of the United States in general and of President George W. Bush in particular has increased substantially throughout the world since the Iraq war. Among Palestinians, for example, Osama bin Laden was regarded as more trustworthy than any other leader. Most Muslims think the United States eventually will attack their countries, while most other countries have substantially increased negative views of the United States and its foreign policy.

We have no doubt that the poll is accurate, but there is a paradox. The Palestinians -- certainly including Hamas -- think bin Laden is more trustworthy than the United States and share very negative views of the United States with other Muslims. At the same time, Hamas, for the first time, is prepared to halt its military operations while the United States conducts negotiations -- negotiations in which Hamas puts little hope, but in which it is resigned to participate. How can the United States reconcile the negative views of the Palestinians and the behavior of Hamas? Conventional wisdom would hold that as confidence declines, the willingness to accommodate American wishes would decline as well.

There is an answer. Italian philosopher Nicolo Machiavelli once asked if it is better to be loved or feared. He answered his own question by saying that it is better to be feared, since love is utterly changeable, but fear is something that remains constant, depending on the prince. Hamas' behavior is a classic expression of Machiavelli's dictum. There is no question that Hamas and the Palestinians hate the United States, and that this hatred has intensified in the past months. But the Palestinians' fear of the United States has increased as well. The United States demonstrated its power in Iraq and now is the strongest military power in the region. It might be hated, but it must also be feared. Hamas explained its position on the cease-fire by saying that, given U.S. power, it has no choice but to try to accommodate itself to the United States.

Therefore, public opinion polls that measure likes and dislikes do not, by themselves, reveal very much about political behavior. The degree to which a politician or a nation is feared also must be measured, and fear in politics does not necessarily translate into resistance. People frightened by power tend to try to accommodate themselves to that power. It is a power that is hated and held to be weak that is most at risk. Obviously, as Machiavelli said, it is best to be both loved and feared, but since that is very difficult, fear will do.

In fact, the Pew survey did poll the fear factor, when it said that majorities in seven out of eight Islamic countries believe that the United States plans to go to war with them. That is an imprecise measure of fear, but a real one. Prudent people try to get along with powers they are afraid of, regardless of their opinions of them. As for the Palestinians, the fear that they now have is that the United States will remove all controls on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon if these talks fail, allowing him to devastate the Palestinians. That fear is the motivator behind Hamas' move.

It also should be remembered that while fear is a motivator, it requires constant attention and effort. It is less a matter of the ability than the willingness of the United States to exert long-term ferocity that is always questionable. In the end, the United States can go home and be relatively safe. Israel is home. Therefore, since in this case fear depends on the ferocity of the United States and not on Israeli power alone, Sharon would be wise to seize the moment if he can to get the best deal possible. That is precisely what he appears to be doing.

Stratfor stays pessimistic about peace in the long run, but the Pew survey actually provides a sense of hope. If the world hates and fears the United States as much as the poll says, its willingness to resist the United States declines. In the specific case of the Palestinians, that creates a particular and unique moment. We will see whether it can unfold at Aqaba.

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SITUATION REPORTS - June 4, 2003

1142 GMT - Twelve people were killed by suspected Islamic militants June 3 near Boumedefaa in the Ain Defla province of western Algeria, the official APS news agency reported, citing security sources. In the past 10 days, militant groups have allegedly killed 30 civilians in the country.

1137 GMT - South Korean defense officials will talk with both their French and Japanese counterparts the week of June 9, South Korean Defense Ministry officials said. South Korean officials will meet with French officials June 10 in Paris and then travel to Tokyo to meet with Japanese officials there June 13.

1132 GMT - At least nine people were injured when a building partly collapsed after being rocked by a large explosion June 4 near the Paris stock exchange. Officials suspect a gas leak caused the explosion. The building contained offices of lawyers, accountants and telecommunications firms.

1128 GMT - Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will voice support for an interim, demilitarized Palestinian state at the end of the summit in Aqaba, Jordan, Haaretz reported, citing a spokesperson in the prime minister's office said. Also, Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is expected to urge Palestinians to end the violent intifada and continue the resistance peacefully. Abbas also is expected to announce the complete acceptance of the latest Middle East peace plan. The two leaders are meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush on June 4.

1119 GMT - The Federation of Korean Trade Unions (FKTU), which claims to have more than 940,000 members, announced that it would go on strike June 30. The FKTU is pushing for a five-day work week and also wants to do away with existing laws on exclusive economic zones and block the sale of Chohung Bank.

1115 GMT - Youssef Saleh al-Eiery, who was killed on June 1 by Saudi Arabian authorities, is a key member of al Qaeda and an aide to Osama bin Laden, the Saudi daily Asharq al-Awsat reports, citing Islamists based in London and Cairo. Al-Eiery was among 19 people believed to be preparing to carry out suicide attacks before the May 12 Riyadh bombings. Eiery was reportedly carrying a letter from bin Laden when he was killed. Saudi officials said they were investigating the report.

1112 GMT - Strikes aimed at pushing Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe out of office have entered their third day, with businesses and offices throughout the capital of Harare remaining closed June 4. The government had issued warnings that it would withdraw trading licenses and work permits for foreign employees if companies remained closed, state television reported, citing Commerce Minister Samuel Mbengegwi. About 300 opposition officials have been arrested due to the strikes, police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena said. The protesters blame Mugabe, who has been in power for 23 years, for the food, energy and currency shortages -- and the 269 percent annual inflation rate.

1105 GMT - Kazakhstan plans to increase its gold reserves by 7.5 percent to 57 tons, an unnamed Kazakhstani National Bank official told Pravda, citing bank chief Grigory Marchenko. Kazakhstan's increase comes at a time when most western central banks are selling their gold reserves. Fifty-three tons of gold currently makes up 16 percent to 18 percent of Kazakhstan's total gold and currency reserves. Gold production is expected to rise from 17 tons to 25 tons in 2005, the source said.