China Studies U.S. Expansionism

China Studies U.S. Expansionism
Today's Featured Analysis from Stratfor

Summary

China's official People's Daily published an article March 11 on the history of the United States and its so-called fourth stage of expansion, the "stage of world domination." The article provides insight into Chinese leaders' views of U.S. motives and goals --views that will shape future Chinese-U.S. relations.

Analysis

China's official People's Daily on March 11 published an article titled, "American Empire Steps Up Fourth Expansion," tracing the history of the United States and laying out four stages of U.S. expansion: continental expansion, overseas expansion, contention for global hegemony and the move toward world domination. According to the article, Washington is now entering the fourth phase.

The article offers insights into Chinese leaders' views of American history, motivations and goals. Far from a wildly inflammatory piece of propaganda, the story explains the concept of U.S. expansionism as being based upon the twin pillars of capitalism and "moral right," and it sets each "phase" of America's path to becoming an empire in a historical context.

For Beijing, the only way to stymie the fourth phase is through promoting multilateralism; barring that, China must be prepared to confront the United States in the future, and U.S. history can give some guidance.

"In a short space of 200-odd years' time, the United States has developed from a small colony into a peerless empire of today," the article states, citing relative political stability, scientific and technological innovations, economic development and, not least, expansionism as the primary reasons for U.S. strength. Expansionism is defined not only as the acquisition of new territories but also as the spread of U.S. cultural, political, economic and military influence.

U.S. empire-building is compared more closely to that of the British than of the Romans, with economics and a sense of moral obligation cited as the primary driving forces. The author takes particular note of the "commercial expansionist spirit" running through the four phases and even to the degree that it drew the United States into unwanted conflicts, such as World War I. At the same time, the writer notes the fact that not only internationally, but even in America, many view the U.S. claim of a moral justification for its outward expansion as suspect.

According to the article, the first phase of American expansion, continental expansion, lasted from the founding of the United States to just before the Spanish-American war. During that time, America took advantage of Europe's internal struggles and began reaching westward.

The second phase, overseas expansion, lasted from the Spanish- American war to the end of World War II. During this time, the United States began acquiring overseas territories to facilitate its rise as "one of the principal capitalist countries in the world."

The third phase, contention for global hegemony, is described as lasting from 1949 to 1991. This was the Cold War, a time when Washington vied with Moscow for influence and control across the globe.

World domination, the current phase, is said to have started after the fall of the Soviet Union, when the United States suddenly found itself the sole superpower. Over the past decade, the writer explains, Washington's move toward world domination was facilitated by economic troubles in Japan and Europe and the economic reconstruction in Russia and China.

The article poses a question as to when this fourth phase will end, noting the two key factors will be the outcomes of the war against terrorism and the war in Iraq. It then concludes by saying, "Only when the United States refrains from taking the road of pursuing global empire can it avoid terrorists' bombs or other forms of attacks befalling on its own territory."

Although this conclusion appears somewhat gratuitous -- as China claims to have no imperial designs and yet still says it faces domestic terrorist threats -- the overall tone and content of the article indicates much about how China views the United States. From Beijing's perspective, an unchallenged United States is moving inexorably toward global domination, motivated by economic self-interest covered with a thin veneer of moral justification.

Yet there is little China can do either to dissuade Washington or alter the U.S. course. Thus, Beijing continues to focus on the concept of multilateralism and the legitimacy of the United Nations as the best ways to slow or even disrupt U.S. expansionism. At the same time, Beijing is preparing to face a future confrontation with the United States if necessary.

Looking at U.S. history, China has noted four primary factors leading to the strengthening of the United States: relative and consistent political stability, ongoing scientific and technological innovation, strong economic development and a policy of expansionism. And as a new generation of leaders prepares to assume power in Beijing later this week, they are taking heed and focusing intensely on the first three. The Chinese government is restructuring its bureaucracy and clamping down on corruption and regionalism. It is checking factional infighting in an attempt to ensure a smooth political transition not only this year, but five and 10 years on.

China's continued economic growth and a focus on science and technology are foremost in most plans being put forth by the central government. Beijing is seeking to skip stages in its economic development, leaping directly into high technology, and its continual focus on its manned space program and the restructuring of the military underscore this. Yet Beijing also sees the benefits of expansionism -- even if only in the realm of extending political, economic and cultural influence.

As China's new leaders take over, they will face domestic economic and social difficulties and the challenge of continuing to reform and restructure a massive bureaucracy. But they also will develop China's foreign policy for the 21st century -- and their read of Washington's history, motives and goals will strongly affect their policies.