Al Qaeda's Small Victories Add Up
Submitted by Templar Titan on Wed, 06/09/2004 - 14:46.
By ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN |
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Unfortunately, the official American reaction was to panic - just as it was in early May when five Western contractors were killed. The United States did not call for new Saudi security efforts, offer aid in counterterrorism, or try to fight back. Instead, the American Embassy in Riyadh decided to forget about American investment and trade by calling for all Americans to leave the country. This comes at a time of record high oil prices, in a country whose oil production is critical to the American and global economies and to every American business, and in a region with 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. All Persian Gulf countries have their own Islamist extremist cells. If Saudi Arabia proves vulnerable, they are next. Is it any wonder oil prices soared further this week - if the Americans are going to cut and run whenever things get messy, why should oil traders have any faith in the continued supply? It is all very well to talk about a global war on terrorism. To win it, however, you have to fight it - on every front. We know that by the time of the 9/11 attacks, some 70,000 to 100,000 young men had been through some form of Islamist training camp, and that Al Qaeda had affiliates or some kind of tie to movements in more than 60 countries. In the years that have followed, the United States defeated the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, but failed to capture many of the leaders or secure the country, and has not completed the nation-building that could bring true victory. The dispersal of terrorists has destabilized western Pakistan, and the resulting political struggle has strengthened Islamists in the rest of the country and created a new regional threat. Yet instead of wrapping up that fight, Washington invaded Iraq. While getting rid of Saddam Hussein was wonderful for the Iraqi people, there is still no evidence that Iraq was ever a center of terrorism or had strong ties to Islamist extremists. As in Afghanistan, we failed to secure the country after our military success and have been far to slow to create a meaningful plan for nation-building. There is daily, violent evidence that the American invasion has bred a mix of Iraqi Islamists and foreign volunteers that is a growing threat. The International Institute of Strategic Studies in London has estimates that Al Qaeda and its affiliates now have a strength of 18,000 men, many joining the movement as a result of the Afghan and Iraq conflicts. Some American intelligence experts on Iraq feel that the number of insurgents may still be growing faster than Coalition Provision Authority's military operations can reduce them. What we need now is pragmatism and not ideology. It seems that the administration's neoconservatives have given up their dream of a broader Middle East initiative, which is a welcome sign of maturity. But this doesn't mean it is time to go on the defensive. We must do everything we can to help the region's more moderate and friendly regimes - the Saudis and others - defeat terrorism and improve the protection of foreign workers and oil facilities. Equally important is stepping up aid and antiterrorism assistance to Pakistan. Yes, these fights have a military dimension - but the primary struggle is political, ideological and economic. We can't win it by force or on the cheap. Victory will come only through strengthening local allies and reformers, not by trying to impose our own political values. Anthony H. Cordesman is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Copyright 2004 |
