The U.N. Security Council passed -- unanimously -- the resolution ending sanctions on Iraq. Syrian officials chose not to attend the meeting, but announced after the vote was taken that, had they been there, they would have voted in favor of the resolution. It is interesting that the Syrian solution to its dilemma included a public declaration of support. We would have thought that silence would have been the more prudent course, but this gives a sense of the pressure that Syria sees itself under and the concern it has about the United States.
The German ambassador to the United Nations summed up the mood, saying, "The war that we did not want, and the majority of the council did not want, has taken place. We cannot undo history. We are now in a situation where we have to take action for the sake of the Iraqi people." Russian officials announced that they would continue to fight to retain the country's oil contracts with Iraq. To do so, they will have to talk to the United States, since the U.N. resolution effectively has turned over control of Iraq to the United States.
The Israelis claim to have captured a ship carrying arms to Palestinians in Gaza. According to the Israelis, an official of Fatah -- Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat's faction -- was on board the ship, along with operatives of Hezbollah. Arafat and Hezbollah both have denied the charge. Either the Israelis or the Palestinians are lying about this, but it is not one of those debates with no outcome. Israeli officials will either produce the captives or they won't. However, if they produce the captives, the result will be extraordinarily important. It would provide material proof that Arafat is engaged in preparing for warfare while his prime minister is engaged in peace talks. It also would show, perhaps even more significantly, that Arafat now is working with Hezbollah directly. Israeli officials have been claiming that Arafat is involved in both the suicide bombings and with radical groups, such as Hezbollah. Arafat has denied this, and the general perception of him, particularly in Europe, has been that he has not been involved, and that the Israeli charges were smears. If the Israelis produce the captives they claim to have, then their position on Arafat will be validated -- assuming that the Fatah official has clear links to Arafat. If that were to happen, Arafat's credibility, which is heavily dependent on his public persona as a relative moderate, would be damaged severely. We assume that the Israelis know that, and that they also understand that they now have to produce the captives to establish the link. If the Israelis fail to produce the captives, it will be Israel's credibility that will be damaged. We are, therefore, at an important juncture.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas met today with leaders of Hamas, who have been spearheading the suicide bombing campaign against Israel. Abbas has pledged to stop the violence, and that means that he must persuade Hamas to stop its campaign. There is some pressure on Hamas from the Palestinian community that has been hard pressed by the war to shift its position, but there is no consensus by any means among the Palestinians.
Hamas officials said after the meeting that they would be prepared to halt attacks on Israeli civilians inside of Israel proper if the Israeli army withdrew from Palestinian territory. However, even if this were to happen, Hamas would not agree to halt attacks on Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip or to stop attacks on the Israeli military. Obviously, the Israelis are not going to accept this offer, and it is difficult to see how Abbas can negotiate his way around Hamas' position. The Israelis want a complete cease-fire prior to any withdrawals; Hamas wants a withdrawal followed by a partial cease-fire.
The timing issue probably could be managed, with the sequence of events negotiated. But Hamas' willingness to give only a partial cease-fire is not acceptable to the Israelis, and it is not clear to us that Hamas could agree to a full cease-fire without spawning a new "mini-Hamas" that would carry on the struggle. Ultimately, the faction of the Palestinians that will not give up armed struggle might be a minority, but it is a significant and hard-core minority that will not prove amenable to negotiation. Still, Abbas can say to the Israelis -- and particularly to the Americans -- that he tried.
************************************************************************ SITUATION REPORTS - May 23, 2003
1140 GMT - The United States accused China on May 22 of failing to enforce an arms proliferation agreement and slapped sanctions on state-owned conglomerate Norinco for supplying missile technology to Iran, the Financial Times reported late May 22. The sanctions bar all exports by Norinco and its subsidiaries to the United States -- and could cost the Chinese conglomerate $100 million in the next two years. The Iranian company, identified as the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, is believed to be a branch of Iran's Defense Ministry. Shahid Hemmat also was placed under sanctions. The sanctions were imposed only a week before U.S. President George W. Bush is scheduled to meet his new Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, in Russia on May 31.
1138 GMT - Thai Foreign Minister Surakiyart Sathirathai has denied Indonesian suggestions that Indonesia's Free Aceh Movement (GAM) has received arms smuggled from Thailand. Surakiyart told reporters in Jakarta that the Thai military maintains a computerized inventory control system for weapons, making illegal supply to foreigners impossible. He did not mention whether illegal arms smugglers participated in the computerized tracking system.
1130 GMT - Iranian government officials have admitted that Tehran has several al Qaeda members in custody, CNN reported May 23, citing an unnamed Bush administration official. The Iranian officials met May 22 in Geneva with Lakhdar Brahimi, U.N. special representative for Afghanistan, and the "six-plus-two" group made up of foreign ministers from Afghanistan's six neighbors -- China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan -- and the United States and Russia.
1128 GMT - Iraq's regular armed forces, elite Republican Guards and other security forces linked to the toppled regime of former President Saddam Hussein were ordered to disband May 23 by Paul Bremer, the U.S. civil administrator for Iraq. In a statement, Bremer said a new Iraqi corps would be formed soon, but did not elaborate.
1125 GMT - Indonesian troops in Aceh province are accused of executing seven young men and boys in the village of Mapa Mamplam, the BBC reported May 23, citing eyewitnesses who claim that some of the youths were shot while sleeping and others were told to run and then shot in the back as they tried to flee. Indonesian Maj. Gen. Endang Suwarya, commander of the military campaign to crush the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), denied the allegations.
1122 GMT - Bilateral talks on economic issues between South Korea and North Korea have resumed. Discussions are focused on inter-Korean projects, including cross-border railways and roads; an industrial complex that would be built near the border in North Korea and food and other humanitarian aid.
1118 GMT - Leaders of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's political wing have rejected new peace talks with the Sri Lankan government, the BBC reported late May 22. However, S.P. Thamilselvan, the leader of the militant group's political wing, said the group wouldn't resume fighting because a military solution is not possible.
1115 GMT - Tens of thousands of German trade unionists protested May 23 against Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's proposed economic reforms, which include cutting welfare payments, relaxing job protection rules and reducing health-care benefits. Germany's largest unions -- the IG Metall engineering workers and the Verdi services union -- are leading the union campaign against Schroeder's proposed reforms. Late on May 22, DGB trade union federation chief Michael Sommer warned that union protests would increase if the reforms, dubbed "Agenda 2010," are endorsed at a Social Democratic Party (SPD) conference June 1.
1112 GMT - It looks as if British Prime Minister Tony Blair might win his campaign to have the word "federal" removed from the draft of the new European Constitution, the Financial Times reported late May 22. Blair is concerned that any language in the constitution that hints at a federal Europe would stir up opponents of the European Union in the United Kingdom and undermine his efforts to bring the U.K. into the EU's single currency zone.
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