Shia Leader's Assassination: A Time Bomb for Washington

 

Summary

A senior Shia cleric has been assassinated in Iraq -- possibly by Sunni militants. The slaying will trigger an intra-Shia power struggle and disrupt U.S.-Iranian dialogue.

 

 

 

Analysis

Unknown assailants exploded a car bomb Aug. 29 outside the Tomb of Ali in An Najaf, killing senior Shia leader Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al Hakim. Hakim, the leader of the Iranian-backed Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), was a key figure in Iraqi Shia politics and an Iranian ally in Iraq. A week ago, another bomb was placed outside the An Najaf home of Hakim's cousin, Mohammed Saeed al Hakim.

Baqir al Hakim's death will send shock waves throughout the oil-rich country, disrupting the shaky political alliance the U.S. administration had been able to establish with the Shia leadership. It also will endanger U.S. dialogue with Iran and, by extension, strengthen the Sunni-led guerrillas fighting against the U.S. occupation.

No one has claimed responsibility for the assassination, but there are many suspects. It is possible that the attack was a result of intra-Shia strife. The ayatollahs and Shia leaders in Baghdad, Karbala and An Najaf all vie for the role of senior Shia leader and rivals in efforts to become the primary mediator between the U.S. military and administration and Iraq's majority Shia population.

Most immediately, Hakim's death will trigger a power struggle among the remaining Shia leaders, such as 76-year-old Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, 22-year-old Moqtada Sadr and Abdel-Aziz al Hakim, the brother of the slain ayatollah and SCIRI's No. 2 man -- now possibly No. 1. Abdel-Aziz al Hakim already holds a seat on Iraq's Governing Council. The Shia power struggle will limit any short-term chances of a Sunni-Shia war, although if it becomes clear that Sunnis were involved in the attack, riots and clashes between the two groups might erupt in mixed cities such as Baghdad -- while the ayatollahs duke it out behind the scenes.

Another, perhaps more likely, explanation is that Sunni militants involved in the guerrilla war against the U.S. military were behind the blast. The guerrillas recently have shifted tactics -- for instance, bombing the United Nations building in Baghdad -- in a bid to stretch U.S. forces to the limit and destabilize the U.S. military's hold on the country.

Hakim's death will cause trouble for the United States by triggering an intra-Shia power struggle.

It also will undermine any Iranian-U.S. cooperation. Hakim was Iran's man in Iraq, and his death will weaken Iran's hold on the southern Shia population. Leaders in Tehran will see that the situation in Iraq might be turning against the United States and will be thinking that if they wait, their own negotiating position will improve.

When the situation is so unstable and fluid, it is better for Iran to stall than to reach a solid agreement with the United States. Tehran likely will continue talks with Washington after a few weeks, but the talks will go nowhere as long as the United States is in trouble in Iraq and as long as Tehran is short a key man to look after its interests in Baghdad. Iran now will be wary of working with the United States over Iraq until it can find a substitute for Hakim in An Najaf.

SOURCE: Stratfor