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As early as December 2003, Al Qaida-aligned operatives posted a communiquß
on the Internet spelling out the organization's strategy to force NATO
allies to abandon the United States in Iraq. The strategy envisioned a
wounded Spain as being the first to withdraw its troops from Iraq in a
move that would be followed by other European Union states.
A 50-page report, published by the Al Qaida-aligned Information Center
for the Support of the Iraqi People, detailed a strategy by Islamic insurgency
groups in North Africa to achieve a Western military withdrawal from Iraq.
The report, which appeared on Al Qaida-related websites, devoted eight
pages to the role of Spain and its participation in the U.S.-led coalition
in Iraq.
The report disputed assertions by Spanish officials that they had no warning
of an Al Qaida-related plot for a massive attack against Spain. Authorities
have said that the only alerts stemmed from the Basque separatist group,
ETA.
On March 11, about 200 people were killed in a series of bombings on commuter
trains in Madrid. So far, 35 Islamic insurgency suspects, most of them
from Morocco, have been detained. Over the weekend, an Egyptian and a
Saudi were also arrested.
Entitled "Iraqi Jihad, Hopes and Risks: Analysis of the Reality and
Visions for the Future, and Actual Steps in the Path of the Blessed Holy
War," the report analyzes Spain's domestic and international posture.
The analysis
included a discussion of Spanish politics, then-Prime Minister Jose Maria
Aznar and the March 14 parliamentary elections. "We say that in order
to force the Spanish government to withdraw from Iraq, the resistance
should hit with painful attacks against its forces," the report said.
"This will be accompanied by an information campaign, which would
present the reality of the situation inside Iraq. It is a must to exploit
the coming general elections in Spain in March 2004." The report
said Spain could not tolerate more than three attacks before deciding
to withdraw from Iraq. Three days after the Madrid train bombings, Aznar
was defeated in elections and a new socialist government pledged to withdraw
troops from Iraq.
"Lastly, we are certain that the withdrawal of the Spanish or Italian
forces from Iraq would serve as a huge pressure on the British presence
[in Iraq], which Tony Blair would not be able to overcome," the report
said. "Hence, the domino tiles would fall quickly. Yet, the basic
problem of how to drop the first tile is still there."
Western intelligence sources said the report was impressive in its understanding
of Spanish politics. They said Spain became a focus in Al Qaida's strategy
to maintain a presence in Europe and expel the U.S. military from Iraq.
"For the last year, jihadist writings about Spain have focused on
the outgoing Spanish government's participation in the U.S.-led coalition
in Iraq, particularly among Moroccan Islamists who felt the brunt of Spanish
judge Garzon Belthazar's investigative zeal," said a study by the
Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, Scott Atran, the author, has organized
a NATO working group on suicide attacks. He is also research director
at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris.
The recent strikes in Madrid could mark the emergence of new Islamic
insurgency groups inspired rather than directed by Al Qaida, intelligence
sources said. Western intelligence agencies, including the CIA, believe
Osama Bin Laden has so far placed few resources into an insurgency campaign
in Europe.
The new Al Qaida satellites are said to include Ansar Al Islam and a cell
headed by Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi, regarded as the most lethal Islamic
insurgent in Iraq. In a demonstration of Al Qaida recruitment, targeting
and operation techniques, these two groups were said to have planned and
carried out attacks in Istanbul in November 2003.
"Empowered with Al Qaida's name, regional groups are now better able
to coordinate among themselves and to strike out on their own," Atran
said. "Finally, they have learned the value of suicide attacks as
perhaps the most cost effective means of modern irregular warfare for
maximizing impact over the widest horizon."
SPARTACUS SECURITY
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Osama
bin Laden is seen in this April 1998 photo. The al-Jazeera Arab
satellite station broadcast a new audio statement from bin Laden
on Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2003, in which he expresses solidarity with
the Iraqi people. (AP Photo) |
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